2022 Super Flex Keeper League - Week 3
Playoff Hunt
Current Standings
The hunt for the playoffs as it stands. All-play is the record if all teams were to play each other every week. xWins is the number of wins you would have expected so far based on the all-play record. The playoff and bye % is calculated by calculating player scores since 2012 based on their rank and sampling these to give a score for each simulation. The optimal lineup is calculated and then an efficiency score is calculated to give the starting lineup score. 1000 different seasons have been simulated using the wins to date and the remaining fixtures for each team. Strength of roster is taken into account in these calculations.
The top two teams in each division will progress to the
playoffs, along with the two remaining teams with the most wins,
regardless of division. Points scored will be used as a tie-breaker.
NFC - North Division
| Position | Manager | Wins | Points | All-Play | xWins | Playoff % | Bye % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | benturvill61 | 3 | 382.78 | 23-10 | 2.1 | 93.5 | 60.9 |
| 2 | Pindeco | 2 | 407.24 | 23-10 | 2.1 | 62.9 | 11.8 |
| 3 | msouthwell | 2 | 349.26 | 17-16 | 1.5 | 77.8 | 22.1 |
| 4 | mikepearson | 1 | 337.28 | 15-18 | 1.4 | 35.3 | 4.7 |
| 5 | LannySenior | 0 | 333.38 | 9-24 | 0.8 | 13.4 | 0.5 |
| 6 | jhh82 | 0 | 295.46 | 7-26 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
SFC - South Division
| Position | Manager | Wins | Points | All-Play | xWins | Playoff % | Bye % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | splangtree | 3 | 407.68 | 30-3 | 2.7 | 82.5 | 39.7 |
| 2 | DanCoulton | 2 | 364.74 | 19-14 | 1.7 | 45.4 | 10.3 |
| 3 | hyperpringle | 2 | 353.44 | 16-17 | 1.5 | 60.3 | 16.4 |
| 4 | Tomcoulton10 | 1 | 354.90 | 14-19 | 1.3 | 38.6 | 6.7 |
| 5 | 0llie | 1 | 344.84 | 11-22 | 1.0 | 75.4 | 25.4 |
| 6 | JoeWright | 1 | 330.42 | 14-19 | 1.3 | 14.8 | 1.5 |
Wins over Expectation
Wins over expectation (WOE) looks at the relationship between actual wins and all-play wins. This shows how lucky or unlucky a team has been with the schedule.
The dots on the chart below show how many wins the team have, whilst the arrow shows where they should actually be if the H2H format wasn’t in place. Teams with arrows pointing right can count themselves unlucky, whilst teams with arrows pointing left are fortunate to have as many wins as they do.
benturvill61 has been the luckiest so far, with 0.9 more wins than expected.
LannySenior can feel hard done by, with 0.8 fewer wins than expected.
Win Projections
The following chart shows the distribution of total expected wins over the season. Any wins so far have been included in the calculation, and you would expect the spread to reduce as the season progresses and the win totals become more certain.
Projected Season Rank
Using the win totals from the chart above, the following chart shows the likelihood of each team finishing in a given position.
Point Projections for Week 4
The following chart shows the distribution of points for the upcoming week.
Using the outputs from above, the next chart shows the probability of each team of winning the week 4 matchup against their opponent.
Story of the Season
The following chart shows the performance of each team as the season has progressed. This is calculated as the xWins for each week minus the average wins each week (0.5). This strips out any influence of matchup and purely looks at your points position in a given week.
For example, an increasing line in the first half of the season followed by a decreasing line over the second half would signify good performance to start the year, but a poor run to end the season.
Playoff Bracket
The following is the playoff bracket if the season were to finish today.
Round 1
| 1 | splangtree | vs | BYE | |
| 4 | DanCoulton | vs | hyperpringle | 5 |
| 3 | Pindeco | vs | msouthwell | 6 |
| 2 | benturvill61 | vs | BYE |
Round 2
| 1 | splangtree | vs | DanCoulton/hyperpringle | 4/5 |
| 2 | benturvill61 | vs | Pindeco/msouthwell | 3/6 |
League Position Tracker
The next table tracks the league position by week for each team in the league. To isolate a single team’s record, double click on the legend on the right.
NFC - North Division
SFC - South Division
Matchup Importance
The following table shows the importance of the next matchup for each manager. Win shows the Playoff % if the matchup is won, and Loss shows the chances with a loss. The Current % is the playoff probability before week 4 takes place. The size of the bar represents the importance of the matchup for each team.
Using this information, we can calculate the importance of each matchup in week 4. The numbers shown give the average playoff leverage for each matchup.
| DanCoulton | 21.6 | 0llie |
| Pindeco | 20.9 | msouthwell |
| splangtree | 20.3 | hyperpringle |
| Tomcoulton10 | 19.8 | JoeWright |
| benturvill61 | 15.6 | mikepearson |
| LannySenior | 5.8 | jhh82 |
Roster Comparison
Contender
The value of each roster has been calculated using crowdsourced values from KeepTradeCut. A value is calculated for each player and these are totaled.
The following chart looks at the value of the squad for this season. Any injuries will affect the value and immediate competitiveness of each team.
Roster Maturity
This chart shows the spread of ages on each roster within the league. The narrower the box, the more concentrated the ages are, and the larger boxes will have a wide spread of ages.